HOW WILL THE PANDEMIC LOOK IN 2022 - Shivanshi Garg
In 2019, we found the first case of Covid-19. In 2020, the virus turned into a pandemic. And in 2021, the virus took the world by storm. And here we are, heading into the new year 2022. What will the coronavirus look like in 2022? The virus which originated from China has already killed nearly 5.2 million people. At least 257 million others have been infected by the virus. However, if we talk about 2022, it can be safely presumed that the virus won’t be able to kill many people. Though it will surely continue mutating and infecting people, it will not be as deadly. This can be said due to a multitude of reasons, that is, vaccines acquired immunity, and the last one being the progress in medical science. Let’s understand each one of them one by one.
Talking about vaccines, these are our best weapons. 4.4 billion people have received their first dose whereas 3.56 billion people have received at least 2 doses of vaccine and nearly 36 countries have rolled out booster shots. The world is producing approximately 1.5 billion doses of vaccine every month. 7 vaccines have already been approved and more than 5 others are in line for receiving regulatory approval from WHO. This data clearly shows that as we head into 2022, vaccines will become more accessible. But this is just the start. Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India says, “We would need one to two booster shots every year for the next 10 years.” We are likely to become as immune to the virus as we are to the common cold a decade later. In the meanwhile, an annual Covid booster shot will become the norm. Another thing that we may see in the coming future are vaccine mandates. Vaccination certificates will become the new ID for everyone.
Coming to the second reason i.e., Acquired immunity. A lot of us have already been infected by the virus. This combination of vaccination and infection will help repel serious infections. Those who do fall sick will have enough medicines to nurse them back to health. When the pandemic began, scientists were in the understanding stage of the virus. Several medicines like Hydroxychloroquine were tested. But now, we understand it better. We are better equipped to fight it. We also have the first oral antiviral for the coronavirus approved by two countries. It must be noted that it is not possible to erase the virus altogether. There is only one disease till now that has been eradicated namely, Smallpox. On the other hand, this virus is here to stay. Thus, in the coming future more and more people will build some level of immunity against the virus. There won't be many spikes in infections. The outbreaks will be limited to pockets. People will die from Covid only if they have some underlying problems or because they are old, unvaccinated or cannot afford medicines. Thus, living with the virus will become the new normal. As we head into a new year, the effects and the unique problems that the pandemic has left us will remain. Another issue to be addressed will be vaccine inequity. Rich countries will have to distribute and donate enough vaccines to developing nations. Vaccine patents will have to be waived. Children will have to be vaccinated. Masks and social distancing will also remain as is. There may be occasional lockdowns as and when clusters and outbreaks are reported. Flexible working will become the new norm.
The last but not least, the progress in medical science. Vaccines will definitely not be able to stop infections but will break the link between infection and death. Also, they may not be effective against the mutated variants but they won’t be ineffective. What about the Omicron variant you may ask? The biggest worry of today. Scientists are working day in and out and booster shots targeting Omicron will be ready by as early as March 2022. Vaccines are being produced at an unprecedented rate. The polio vaccine took 20 years just to go from its early trial to its first licensing. We can see how far science has come since then. Two years into the pandemic and a sizable population have got at least one shot injected into their arm.
Thus, the virus that came from China will no longer be a pandemic in 2022. It will reduce to an endemic. This means it will be confined to certain pockets of the world. Seasonal flare-ups will happen but our lives will return to normal i.e., a post-pandemic normal.
Talking about vaccines, these are our best weapons. 4.4 billion people have received their first dose whereas 3.56 billion people have received at least 2 doses of vaccine and nearly 36 countries have rolled out booster shots. The world is producing approximately 1.5 billion doses of vaccine every month. 7 vaccines have already been approved and more than 5 others are in line for receiving regulatory approval from WHO. This data clearly shows that as we head into 2022, vaccines will become more accessible. But this is just the start. Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India says, “We would need one to two booster shots every year for the next 10 years.” We are likely to become as immune to the virus as we are to the common cold a decade later. In the meanwhile, an annual Covid booster shot will become the norm. Another thing that we may see in the coming future are vaccine mandates. Vaccination certificates will become the new ID for everyone.
Coming to the second reason i.e., Acquired immunity. A lot of us have already been infected by the virus. This combination of vaccination and infection will help repel serious infections. Those who do fall sick will have enough medicines to nurse them back to health. When the pandemic began, scientists were in the understanding stage of the virus. Several medicines like Hydroxychloroquine were tested. But now, we understand it better. We are better equipped to fight it. We also have the first oral antiviral for the coronavirus approved by two countries. It must be noted that it is not possible to erase the virus altogether. There is only one disease till now that has been eradicated namely, Smallpox. On the other hand, this virus is here to stay. Thus, in the coming future more and more people will build some level of immunity against the virus. There won't be many spikes in infections. The outbreaks will be limited to pockets. People will die from Covid only if they have some underlying problems or because they are old, unvaccinated or cannot afford medicines. Thus, living with the virus will become the new normal. As we head into a new year, the effects and the unique problems that the pandemic has left us will remain. Another issue to be addressed will be vaccine inequity. Rich countries will have to distribute and donate enough vaccines to developing nations. Vaccine patents will have to be waived. Children will have to be vaccinated. Masks and social distancing will also remain as is. There may be occasional lockdowns as and when clusters and outbreaks are reported. Flexible working will become the new norm.
The last but not least, the progress in medical science. Vaccines will definitely not be able to stop infections but will break the link between infection and death. Also, they may not be effective against the mutated variants but they won’t be ineffective. What about the Omicron variant you may ask? The biggest worry of today. Scientists are working day in and out and booster shots targeting Omicron will be ready by as early as March 2022. Vaccines are being produced at an unprecedented rate. The polio vaccine took 20 years just to go from its early trial to its first licensing. We can see how far science has come since then. Two years into the pandemic and a sizable population have got at least one shot injected into their arm.
Thus, the virus that came from China will no longer be a pandemic in 2022. It will reduce to an endemic. This means it will be confined to certain pockets of the world. Seasonal flare-ups will happen but our lives will return to normal i.e., a post-pandemic normal.
Comments
Post a Comment