COP26 AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD - Tanishq Shukla

AIM of COP26

The aim of COP26 is to secure global net-zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach. Countries are being asked to come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets (NDCs) that align with reaching net zero by the middle of the century. To deliver on these stretching targets, countries will need to accelerate the phaseout of coal, encourage investment in renewables, curtail deforestation, and speed up the switch to electric vehicles.

Where the world stands

In the recent Glasgow submit, our prime minister said that India targets net-zero emissions by 2070 and this statement has raised eyebrows in western media papers and magazines that this is 20 years later than the goal set by the world community. India is currently the third biggest net emitter in the world but things become interesting when we analyze the emission of the biggest two emitters and their share of percentage to global emissions with respect to India. No rewards for guessing the biggest emitter of the world which is China followed by the US. China contributes around 27 % to global emissions while the US contributes to about 40% of what China does i.e., around 11% while India contributes around 25% of China which is around 6.6% to global emission. The COP26 has brought a lot of attention to climate change and this had led to a lot of data coming up which helps us in building perspectives. In a recent article by Keith Bradsher in the New York Times, he talks about the energy shortage of China and how the coal that has been dug out and burned in just one season of autumn by China is larger than the total emission of a country like Australia or Mexico. This provides us the scale of the problem and the scale of the problem comes from China. In 2019, China emitted around 14 billion tons of emission which is greater than the emission by all OECD countries i.e., around 38 richest countries in the world or the first world countries. The OECD countries grew by burning fuels and that is what China and other third world countries are doing. According to the report by CREA, a Finland-based research organization, it tells us that the state-run companies by China (PSUs) in the oil, cement, steel sector produces more carbon than the whole nation. For e.g. the Chinese steel company called BAOWU steel produces more greenhouses gases than Pakistan which is a country of around 23 crores with a very strong army, a huge nuclear arsenal, and a cricket team that just beat India in the t20 world cup at least for the first time. Companies such as SINOPEC are emitting more than Canada and Spain combined while PETRO China company has emitted more than south Korea and Vietnam combined. These data tell us the enormity of the emissions of China with respect to the world. While the US and European countries are controlling their emission, China says that its emission will peak by 2030 and net-zero submission by 2060. The emission of India will grow as it is still a developing nation and Indians aspire to a higher standard of living which will increase India’s emissions. India’s per capita emission is among the lowest in the world owing to its huge population and it’s bound to increase going forward. This doesn’t give free hand to India to emit as much they want but it tells us that GOI is realistic about its net-zero emission ambition by 2070.

What lies ahead

In a joint statement, the UK, the U.S., and 18 other nations intend to end foreign oil, gas, and coal funding by the end of next year, while prioritizing clean energy projects. However, some of the biggest funders of foreign fossil-fuel projects, including Japan, Korea, and China, aren't planning to sign the pledge - an omission that could undermine its effectiveness.  

The cold reality is that investors are more willing to put their money into renewable energy projects where a profit can be made than they are to spend it on sea walls or other adaptive measures that do not guarantee a return. The failure of the richer nations to fulfill their promise of $100bn by 2020 has undoubtedly damaged trust, there is work underway to put in place a new, more substantial payment from 2025. Although the Nations, industries, and people strive to reduce emissions and are successful up to a point. But it’s patchy – the easier gains are made, the tougher one’s lag. The world relies on fossil fuels for decades to come. Hydrocarbons are persistent – while their share of the global energy mix falls, it is still 70% in 2050, marginally down from 80% today. Oil demand plateaus and begins a slow decline in the mid-2030s; gas demand in contrast continues to increase into the 2040s fuelled by Asian economic growth. Investment in oil and gas will have to be sustained, with US$12 trillion spent on new supply through 2050. There is still plenty of growth in low-carbon technologies and many opportunities for investment. The technologies of the transition, most of them at least, are already there awaiting development and commercialization. An orderly energy transition, therefore, is essential to reach the ambitious goal of net-zero carbon emission by 2050. The first world countries and China which are the major contributor to emission need to plan a methodical transition from fossil fuels and need to provide funding for developing nations so they can incorporate the alternatives without crippling their economies. Unless the developed nations don’t work together and keep passing the blames to other nations, these submit will keep on happening without any tangible results. The world needs to work together on reducing their emission until it’s too late.